Strategic Foresight from Big Deals and Unexpected Google Trends
The business world was rocked by a single headline just over a month ago: Union Pacific’s $85 billion offer for Norfolk Southern ¹. Doesn’t sound really exciting, but this is a missive deal between two VERY old companies! If approved, the world will see the first coast‑to‑coast freight rail network in the U.S., unlocking around $2.75 billion in annual synergies ¹.
Shortly after the news broke, Google’s trending list lit up. It’s clear by the numbers that this was drawing fascination from everywhere. A few days earlier, a very different name topped the charts: former Chicago Cubs legend Ryne Sandberg ², whose death drove hundreds of thousands of searches and social‑media tributes. And in between were spikes tied to finance (BlackRock’s ports deal in the Panama Canal), AI tools, and even TikTok memes asking, “Is it too late to start?”
These search stats should not be viewed as random; they should be viewed as signals.
They tell us what the market cares about, where public attention is shifting and, more importantly, they provide early clues about the opportunities and risks ahead. The practice of turning these weak signals into actionable insights is called Strategic Foresight, and it’s a powerful tool in the corporate strategist kit. Below, I’ll explore what we can learn from big deals and unexpected trends and how to navigate the chaos.
Big deals are directional signals
Mega‑mergers do more than move stock prices; they reshape industries. In the Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern case, the proposed combination would be the largest buyout in U.S. rail history and would reshape the movement of goods from grains to autos. It would create a company with a quarter trillion enterprise value and coast‑to‑coast reach ¹. As you can imagine, regulators and unions immediately expressed concerns about service disruptions and job losses, reminding us that every strategic move doesn’t have isolated effects.
From a foresight perspective, this deal tells us a lot:
Consolidation is accelerating. When a sector’s largest players are willing to merge, it reflects pressure from rising costs, regulatory shifts and the need for scale.
Infrastructure remains a geopolitical priority. Railroads are as strategic as ports or semiconductor fabs; control over logistics networks influences national resilience, and international influence (take China’s continued investment into Port Sudan, and the Khartoum-Port Sudan railway) ³.
Regulatory headwinds are part of the signal. Antitrust scrutiny, union pushback and environmental concerns are not obstacles but indicators of stakeholder expectations. Ignoring them blinds us to possible pitfalls.
Unexpected Google trends and what they reveal
Google’s trending charts are a goldmine for foresight practitioners.
When Ryne Sandberg’s death spiked a torrent of searches, it highlighted society’s attachment to legacy brands and nostalgia. It also provided a lesson in how quickly news can mobilize communities, whether around a sports hero or a social cause. Queries about BlackRock’s involvement in Panama Canal ports, Union Pacific’s $85 billion bid, and AI tools like Claude hints at deeper anxieties: geopolitical control of infrastructure, the power of asset managers and the pace of AI adoption. Finally, viral prompts like “Is it too late to start…?” on YouTube and TikTok reveal a generational fear of missing out on new opportunities. An emotion savvy strategists can foresee messages about lifelong learning and reinvention.
Foresight isn’t just about scanning industry journals; it’s about observing where attention goes. When unexpected topics surge, ask why. A spike in search interest for a merger might mean stakeholders are worried about monopolies or supply‑chain disruptions. A celebrity obituary may signal a hunger for stories about resilience, teamwork or legacy—all themes that resonate in leadership and innovation.
But is this reaching, Fenton? Are we doing the most with very little information? Are we extrapolating too far? Are we taking a small insight and blowing it up out of proportion? I'm not suggesting these insights are headlines. But, these spikes are the basis of hypotheses. To do this correctly, we 'd triangulate with two or three independent sources, watch for persistence over weeks not hours, compare against historical baselines, and test the implications with small, low-risk moves. If the signal fades, we drop it. If it compounds, we scale. That isn’t fortune-telling, it’s disciplined curiosity turning into smarter strategy.
Using the Curiosity Compass ™ to decode signals
The Curiosity Compass ™ is a tool I developed that I share with my keynote audiences, and it offers a practical way to turn signals into strategic action. Each direction corresponds to a mode of thinking you can apply when reading the news or spotting trends.
(N)avigate Norms: Challenge assumptions
When a massive infrastructure deal dominates headlines, don’t assume it’s “just business.” Ask what underlying norms are being challenged. In the case of Union Pacific, the century‑old norm of regional rail monopolies is being upended. What other industries could benefit from coast‑to‑coast integration? Conversely, are there norms around fairness and competition that need defending? By questioning orthodoxies, you reveal opportunities and threats that others overlook.
(E)xplore Beyond: Cross‑domain inspiration
Unexpected search trends encourage you to look beyond your sector. For instance, the viral “Is it too late to start…?” meme reflects anxiety about starting something new. In your organization, that might translate into training programs for mid‑career employees or workshops on Radical Curiosity (hint hint, nudge nudge). Looking at other domains sparks ideas you wouldn’t find by examining only your own industry, and helps your strategy stay competitive as your sourcing ideas far from your competitor’s vantage point.
(S)olve Systematically: Turn signals into operations
Foresight is useless if it stays in the strategy deck (most of strategy is). Once you’ve identified a trend, you need to review and adapt your processes. This could mean rethinking your supply‑chain dependencies, updating risk analyses for clients, or developing new content that addresses emerging concerns. Solve systematically by breaking down each process and implementing improvements.
(W)iden the Lens: Consider all stakeholders
Big deals trigger strong reactions because they affect more than just shareholders. The Union Pacific merger is raising questions about job losses and service quality; BlackRock’s port acquisitions is sparking debates about national sovereignty and the role of the private sector. When you widen your lens, you see how an innovation or strategy will ripple through employees, customers, suppliers and communities. Having a holistic view helps design solutions that create shared value rather than unintended harm.
Don't want to come to OCAD and do your MDes? All good. Here are some practical steps to make strategic foresight a more everyday behavior:
Establish a signal‑scanning routine. Set up alerts for major deals, regulatory changes and trending search topics in industries adjacent to yours. Don’t limit yourself to your own domain.
Use the Curiosity Compass as a checklist. When a signal emerges, ask yourself: Which norms does this challenge? Can we find inspiration from another field? What operations might this affect? Who are all the stakeholders?
Run micro‑experiments. Apply small tests to validate whether a trend warrants action similar to how organizations use pilots to test before they buy/double down investment.
Share insights widely. Encourage team members to bring forward observations from their own news feeds. Innovation lives at the micro level; frontline employees often see weak signals before executives do, because (no offence) they’re just closer to the action.
Conclusion: Curiosity as your foresight engine
Big deals and trending topics are not noise; they are the sparks that ignite strategic foresight. By combining diligent signal scanning with the four directions of the Compass—Navigating norms, Exploring beyond, Solving systematically and Widening the lens—you transform information into insight, and insight into action. Whether the headline is a historic rail merger, a viral meme or a sports hero’s passing, the question remains the same:
What does this signal tell us about the future we are building… and how will we use our curiosity to shape it?
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Work Cited
Reuters. “Union Pacific to Reshape U.S. Freight Rail with $85 Billion Deal for Norfolk.” Reuters, 29 July 2025.
MLB. “Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg Dies.” MLB News, 29 July 2025.
Voice of America (VOA). “China Seeks Stronger Ties with Sudan amid Regional, International Tug of War.” VOA News, 3 June 2023.